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FEBRUARY 10,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:56 P.M. ET: 

OUT – Carly Fiorina and Chris Christie have dropped out of the Republican race, which is entirely logical.  They're both good people, and there'd been high hopes for Christie at one time.  But neither made much progress with the voters.  Between them they may have had, oh, about 7%, and I have no idea where those votes will go.  I would hope that Dr. Ben Carson would also decide to leave, rather than embarrass himself further.  He's a fine man in the wrong role.  John Kasich got a boost from New Hampshire, but I doubt if his good fortune will repeat itself in South Carolina, a week from Saturday.  He, too, might depart.  The serious field is Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and, to a degree, Jeb Bush.

MIKE? – Speculation grows that Mike Bloomberg might enter the race.  No fundraisers needed, as he's a multi-billionaire.  He is meeting with pollster Frank Luntz.  I've read that some preliminary polls taken put Bloomberg, who is barely known outside New York City, at about 10%.  But he could flood the airways with ads, and could probably boost his share quickly to 20%, which is what Ross Perot got in 1992.  Don't underestimate Bloomberg's potential to shake up the race.  He provides a dignified, rational alternative to the tumult we're seeing.

HILLARY'S LAST STAND? – The Dems vote in South Carolina on the 27th, a week after the Republicans vote in the state.  Many are saying that if Hillary can't stop Sanders in South Carolina, she's lost the race and might as well get out.  South Carolina, with its large minority population, is made for Hillary.  But Hillary has run an awful campaign, and her concession speech in New Hampshire made matter worse.  She came off as a hack, trying to pacify every group she could remember to name.  No vision, no spirit.  No style.  And she still has an FBI probe over her head.   At the same time, Bernie Sanders, like the leftist Barack Obama before him, is not under any serious press scrutiny.  He's the media's next dream – a real socialist in the White House.  The inaugural ball will be held on a union picket line somewhere in the rust belt.

February 10, 2016       Permalink

YIKES! – CLINTON IN DISTRESS – AT 8:28 A.M. ET:   Analysis of the New Hampshire vote shows the full extent of the Clinton disaster.  From The New York Times: 

Senator Bernie Sanders beat Hillary Clinton among nearly every demographic group in the Democratic New Hampshire primary, according to exit polls.

He carried majorities of both men and women. He won among those with and without college degrees. He won among gun owners and non-gun owners. He beat Mrs. Clinton among previous primary voters and those participating for the first time. And he ran ahead among both moderates and liberals.

Even so, there were a few silver linings for Mrs. Clinton. While Mr. Sanders bested her among all age groups younger than 45, the two candidates polled evenly among voters aged 45 to 64. And Mrs. Clinton won the support of voters 65 and older. And, though Mrs. Clinton lost nearly every income group, she did carry voters in families earning over $200,000 per year.

COMMENT:  But, as we have said, wait 'til South Carolina, on February 27th.  Clinton must act quickly to get her campaign back on track, if it ever was on track in the first place.  She must stop trotting out ancient history like Madeleine Albright and Gloria Steinem, queen of the sixties. 

She must take on Bernie's quack socialism.  If she can't, in South Carolina, beat a guy who honeymooned in the Soviet Union, she's history.  (I can just imagine Bernie's bride saying, "Oh Comrade Bernie, I can't wait to make love in the Gulag.")  This election has some very weird stuff.

February 10,  2016     Permalink

LET HIM STAY THERE – AT 8:16 A.M. ET:  Iran continues to poke a stick in our eye, despite the nuclear deal.   And now an American villain will help the Iranians celebrate their growing power.  From Fox: 

Louis Farrakhan, the controversial leader of the Nation of Islam, is set to speak Thursday at a rally in Iran for one of its new drones, Iranian media report.

The planned ceremony marks 37 years after Iran's Islamic Revolution, in which Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini seized control from the Shah, who had gone into exile.

Both Farrahkan and Iranian president Hassan Rouhani will speak, Iran's Tasnim News Agency reports. The homegrown drone will go on display along with a ballistic missile and a satellite carrier, organizer Asghar Abkhezr said.

Farrakhan and Rouhani met for dinner as recently as 2013, in New York City.

Critics have long condemned Farrakhan, 82, for his inflammatory statements about Jews, Catholics, gays and Asians.

COMMENT:  I wonder if the White House will condemn Farrakhan's presence.  Or the Iranian ceremony.  Or anything else done in Tehran.  Obama, who now almost seems a distant figure, wants to make Iran the centerpiece of his Mideast policy, replacing our traditional allies.  It is a fool's errand, done by a fool.

We've said that any of the presidential candidates would be better than Obama on national security.  That is no longer the case.  Bernie Sanders would be worse.  More honest, perhaps, but worse.

February 10, 2016       Permalink

BACK TO THE REAL WORLD – AT 8:10 A.M. ET:  There's a world outside New Hampshire, and it's very dangerous.  From UPI:

WASHINGTON, Feb. 9 (UPI) -- In testimony before Congress on Tuesday, National Intelligence Director James Clapper said the Islamic State will likely attempt an attack on U.S. soil this year and that North Korea has restarted a plutonium reactor.

Clapper said the Islamic State has been infiltrating migrant groups posed as refugees fleeing from Iraq and Syria in efforts to spread across borders. He warned the foremost terrorist threat to the United States is the Islamic State and its eight branches, including Boko Haram, which changed its name to the Islamic State West Africa Province after formally pledging allegiance in 2015.

During a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing, Clapper delivered his annual testimony of assessments by intelligence agencies, where he said the Islamic State was "taking advantage of the torrent of migrants to insert operatives into that flow," adding that that IS is "pretty skilled at phony passports so they can travel ostensibly as legitimate travelers."

The Islamic State "will probably attempt to conduct additional attacks in Europe, and attempt to direct attacks on the U.S. homeland in 2016," Clapper said, also warning that al-Qaida affiliates "are positioned to make gains in 2016" -- specifically Yemen's al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula and Syria's al-Nusra Front.

Lt. Gen. Vincent Stewart, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said it was unlikely the Iraqi city of Mosul would be liberated from Islamic State control in 2016.

COMMENT:  Lots of happy talk, right?  I trust Clapper's report won't interfere with the socialist fantasy world of Bernie Sanders, or the legacy-protecting fadeout of Barack Obama.

I hope we don't have a terrorist attack.  But if we do, it might well have a profound effect on our presidential election.   Would ISIS understand that?  I'm not sure they would.

February 10,  2016     Permalink 

FEBRUARY 9,  2016

NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY –  It's over.  And the two big words to come out of New Hampshire are...South Carolina.

11:05 P.M. ET:  So Bernie bested Hillary by about 20 points in a state whose black population consists of Joe and Letitia.  His victory was expected, his margin impressive.  However, Bernie's acceptance speech was straight pie-in-the-sky socialism.  We're gonna do everything, and it won't cost you a dime.  I'm not sure America will buy that.  The Democratic and Republican primaries in the next big state – South Carolina – are on different days.  The Dems vote on February 27th.  That will be the big test, a diverse state.  I don't think anything will be truly proved until South Carolina votes.

On the GOP side, a similar deal.  Trump got 34% of the vote.  Impressive, but a candidate has to get 50% actually to win the nomination.  The anti-Trump vote is still divvied up.  The GOP votes in South Carolina on February 20th, 11 days from now.  Can Trump last, or will he run into trouble outside the North?  And who will drop out between now and then?  There seems no real reason for Carson, Fiorina or even Christie to stay in.  Although Kasich came in second in New Hampshire tonight, he got only half of Trump's vote and his finances are reportedly not great.  I can't see him carrying much momentum into South Carolina.  Rubio, Cruz and Bush reportedly have good ground operations in that state.

Again, nothing will be proved until South Carolina.   

We welcome reader comments on the primary, and the election campaign, for our Angel's Corner tomorrow night.

NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY – There'll be no "Short Takes" tonight, as we're following the results of the New Hampshire primary. 

8:53 P.M. ET:  It's clear that the polling predictions were right as to the winners.  Donald Trump will win the Republican primary by an impressive amount.  Bernie Sanders will win the Democratic primary with strong numbers.

John Kasich will come in second for the GOP.  Third place will be fought for, if you can believe it.  The contenders are Cruz, Bush, and Rubio.

Clearly, Rubio's performance is a big disappointment.   He expected, and the GOP establishment expected, that he'd come out of New Hampshire with an impressive second-place finish, putting him in position to be the "establishment" challenger to Donald Trump.  That did not happen.  But let's not over-interpret.  The primaries move south and then move national, and New Hampshire is not a typical state.

Bernie's expected victory may or may not set him up well.  The next big state for the Dems is South Carolina, with a substantial black vote.  African-Americans have been loyal to Hillary Clinton.  If that loyalty can be broken by Sanders, Hillary is in deep trouble.  If she holds, Sanders may start to weaken.

Lots of speculation.  Please remember that.

Stand by for more.

WANTED TO BE SURE YOU KNEW – AT 4:31 P.M. ET:   It's now official.  Hillary Clinton is under formal investigation by the FBI.  Up to now the Obama administrations Ministry of Explanations and Blurry Words argued that the FBI was looking into some wires, or a modem, or something plugged into a circuit breaker, or somethin'.   Not anymore.  From, of all places, MSNBC:   

In a letter disclosed Monday in a federal court filing, the FBI confirms one of the world’s worst-kept secrets: It is looking into Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server.

Why say this at all, since it was widely known to be true? Because in August in response to a judge’s direction, the State Department asked the FBI for information about what it was up to. Sorry, the FBI said at the time, we can neither confirm nor deny the existence of any investigation.

Now, in a letter dated February 2 and filed in court Monday, the FBI’s general counsel, James Baker, notes that in public statements and congressional testimony, the FBI “has acknowledged generally that it is working on matters related to former Secretary Clinton’s use of a private email server.”

Baker says the FBI has not, however, “publicly acknowledged the specific focus, scope or potential targets of any such proceedings.”

He ends the one-paragraph letter by saying that the FBI cannot say more “without adversely affecting on-going law enforcement efforts.”

The letter was filed in one of the Freedom of Information Act cases brought against the State Department over access to documents from Hillary Clinton’s time as secretary of state. This one was filed by Judicial Watch.

COMMENT:  The FBI is being very correct.  It's a serious agency and they know how serious the matter is.  It involves a potential president.  They want to get this exactly right.

February 9, 2016       Permalink

HILLARY'S FIGHT FOR SURVIVAL – AT 10:22 A.M. ET:   Hillary will probably be defeated in New Hampshire today by Bernie Sanders.  She is now in a fight for political survival, but some Democrats worry over the tactics she's chosen.  From The Hill: 

Hillary Clinton’s White House campaign is going negative against her left-wing rival Bernie Sanders — and a lot of unaligned Democrats think that’s a bad idea.

Her husband, former President Clinton, is leading the charge, hitting Sanders supporters as sexist on Sunday while accusing the Vermont senator of muddying facts.

The attacks come as Hillary Clinton faces a defeat — perhaps a heavy one — in the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, according to opinion polls.
Clinton barely defeated Sanders in last week’s Iowa caucuses, and Monday brought rumblings of a possible staff shake-up.

The shift by the Clinton team to a more aggressive footing evoked memories for some of her 2008 campaign against Barack Obama, when Bill Clinton and other surrogates mounted attacks that were widely seen as counter-productive.

Clinton supporters worry that history might be repeating itself, and that the former president’s attacks could boomerang on his wife by turning off large swathes of the Democratic electorate.

And...

Iowa gave added sharpness to the 42nd president’s existing frustrations.

“He’s had enough of this,” one supporter said.

All the same, even some Clintonites have found his tone perplexing.

“It doesn’t feel strategic. It feels reactionary,” another ally said. “Angry Bill is kind of fun but when he’s looking older and older, not so much. I don’t understand it. In the end, show me anyone who believes [Sanders] gets the nomination, so why not keep his supporters happy for the general?”

Another former aide who worked for Clinton during her 2008 bid said Bill Clinton “should have let others be the attack dog while he promotes Hillary.”

COMMENT:  I think the critics are right.  The Clintons come off as a wealthy corporation being pushed aside by a scrappy start-up. 

But it's also true that, thanks in some measure to Barack Obama, the Democratic Party has veered far to the left, and that just isn't where the Clintons are.

February 9, 2016       Permalink

THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM – AT 8:56 A.M. ET:  It's been rumored for some time that former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg might run for president.  Now Bloomberg has publicly confirmed that he might indeed. 

This story is very important.  Third-party or independent candidates can shake up a race, or even determine it, by taking votes away from one of the major-party candidates.  In 1992 Ross Perot did exactly that when he got 19% of the vote, most of it coming from President H.W. Bush.  This allowed Bill Clinton to become president with only 43% of the popular vote.

From CNN:

(CNN) Michael Bloomberg says he is considering running for president of the United States, a move that would dramatically shake up an already chaotic 2016 race.

In an interview with Financial Times, the media mogul and former New York City mayor said he was "looking at all the options" when asked about a possible bid.

"I'm listening to what candidates are saying and what the primary voters appear to be doing," Bloomberg said, adding that he would need to add his name on ballots by early March in order to stage a serious campaign.

The billionaire also issued his most damning indictment of the current campaigns to date.

"I find the level of discourse and discussion distressingly banal and an outrage and an insult to the voters," Bloomberg told the Financial Times, adding that the public deserved "a lot better."

Bloomberg's interview, which marks the first time the billionaire has confirmed that he is eyeing a presidential bid, took place in London and focused primarily on financial sustainability, a source with knowledge of the interview told CNN.

It wasn't until the end of the interview that the reporter, Oliver Ralph, asked the former mayor if he was considering running for president.

"What Bloomberg told (the Financial Times) is what he's been saying privately for weeks," the source said.

The New York Times reported last month that he was considering a plan to run as an independent because he was troubled by Donald Trump's success on the Republican side, and Hillary Clinton's inability to stanch Bernie Sanders' growth on the Democratic side.

COMMENT:  The key point here:  Bloomberg, a multi-billionaire, could finance his own campaign.  No need to go on a fundraising tour.

Also, he's been mayor of New York, often called "the second toughest job in America."  He was a solid, if unexciting mayor.  He comes off as a decent, well-behaved man.

Could he actually win a presidential election?  Look, you never know.  Ross Perot was a terrible candidate, an eccentric who never really could explain what he'd do as president.  Bloomberg would be much better, but he has some policy positions that would be serious problems.  First, he's a passionate advocate of gun control.  Second, he had a kind of nanny-state approach to governing New York City, going on campaigns to bar oversized soft drinks, for example.  Third, he's a New Yorker, and there are still some in the country who have a prejudiced view of New York. 

Bloomberg would need at least a third of the popular vote to win.  But we decide our presidents by electoral vote, and I wonder how many states he could carry.  You may be certain he's polling on that right now.

Pundits point out that most Americans know little, if anything, about Bloomberg.  But his campaign's vast financial resources could flood the airways with getting-to-know-him ads.

Win?  No one can predict.  But shake up the race?  Definitely.  And the excitement factor would grow. 

February 9, 2016       Permalink   

NATIONAL POLL ON PRIMARY DAY – AT 8:21 A.M. ET:  We'll find out within hours who'll win the New Hampshire primary, but what about the national standing of the candidates?  From The Hill:

Donald Trump has a sizable national lead over other Republican White House hopefuls the day of New Hampshire’s GOP presidential primary, according to a new weekly tracking poll.

Trump commands a 15-point edge over his nearest competition in the NBC News/Survey Monkey poll released Tuesday.

He receives 35 percent, topping Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) at 20 percent and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) at 17 percent.

Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson is fourth with 7 percent, while a three-way tie exists for fifth place nationwide.

Former Gov. Jeb Bush (R-Fla.) is deadlocked with Govs. Chris Christie (R-N.J.) and John Kasich (R-Ohio) at 3 percent apiece. Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina rounds out the GOP field with 2 percent of her own.

Tuesday’s results, however, also found less confidence that Trump will win the Republican nomination.

About 42 percent believe he will take that honor, pollsters found, but that result is down 20 points from last week.

COMMENT:  On the Democratic side, Hillary leads Bernie 51-39 percent.  Both candidates on the Democratic side have remained relatively steady for the last month, at least in this poll.  Other polls show Sanders almost even with Hillary.

National polls are interesting snapshots, but only that.  We are in the nomination phase of the presidential election, and it's the state polls that may have some meaning.  But again, they're only interesting, and entertaining.  Don't take them to the bank.

February 9,  2016     Permalink